The Seventh Carbon Budget has been presented to the Secretary of State pursuant to Section 34 of the Climate Change Act 2008. The executive summary of the report is below as well as a link to the 30 min video giving the key highlight……
Executive Summary
The climate is changing. Greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere are outside the range that our species has ever previously experienced. Heatwaves and floods have become regular fixtures instead of ‘once in a lifetime’ events for many around the world, including in the UK. Global warming has unequivocally been caused by greenhouse gas emissions, with 100% of the observed long-term temperature change attributable to human causes.
The UK’s Climate Change Act (2008) sets the framework for domestic action to address climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Act requires the Government to propose regular, legally binding milestones on the way to achieving Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions, known as carbon budgets. The Committee is required to advise the Government on the level of these. Parliament must then agree each carbon budget for it to be set into law. Investors, businesses, households, and government can then act with a shared understanding of the path as well as the end goal.
Our recommended level for the Seventh Carbon Budget, a limit on the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions over the five-year period 2038 to 2042, is 535 MtCO2e, including emissions from international aviation and shipping.
This would be an ambitious target, reflecting the importance of the task. But it is deliverable, provided action is taken rapidly. Our advice is based on the latest technological, social, and economic evidence; extensive sector modelling; engagement with stakeholders including businesses, trade unions, and farmers; and a citizens’ panel testing what would make changes accessible and affordable to households.
In many key areas, the best way forward is now clear. Electrification and low-carbon electricity supply make up the largest share of emissions reductions in our pathway, 60% by 2040. Once the market has locked into a decarbonisation solution, it needs to be delivered. The roll-out rates required for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and renewables are similar to those previously achieved for mass-market roll-outs of mobile phones, refrigerators, and internet connections.
The private sector has a proven record of innovating and delivering rapid transitions in technologies and consumer choices, provided the right incentives are in place. As technologies such as renewable electricity and EVs become cheaper than fossil fuel-based alternatives, global markets for many of the technologies needed to decarbonise economies are growing.
Alongside markets, policy is needed to provide confidence to investors and consumers; manage risks in new markets; remove barriers to delivery; and offer financial incentives where necessary. Policy should include clear long-term signals and decisive choices to narrow options as it becomes increasingly clear which technologies markets are locking into.
The UK must also step up actions to adapt to the climate change that is already happening. The investments, infrastructure, and land use changes required to deliver the Seventh Carbon Budget must be designed to be well-adapted to current and future climate change.
We estimate that the net costs of Net Zero will be around 0.2% of UK GDP per year on average in our pathway, with investment upfront leading to net savings during the Seventh Carbon Budget period. Much of this investment is expected to come from the private sector.
Net Zero will increase economic security against fossil fuel price shocks, which have caused around half of the UK’s recessions since 1970. There are also opportunities for new jobs in areas such as heat pump installation, and growing markets such as green finance. Clean, efficient, electric technologies will mean reduced air pollution and should mean lower energy bills than continued reliance on fossil fuel technologies.
Large parts of the UK’s service-based economy will see little impact, but for some, for example in oil and gas and some parts of farming, there will be significant change. Government needs to engage with affected communities to develop proactive, funded plans to support those affected.
Targets support actions, but targets alone are not enough. This report therefore sets out our recommendations for how to hit the proposed Seventh Carbon Budget. We set out a pathway, and associated actions, and have considered economic and social factors to ensure our advice is practical.
